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Ipsos Reid puts Tories ahead in "turnout vote" poll

It's less than two weeks until election day in Ontario and Ipsos Reid is predicting a possible PC majority.

Pollsters aren't just calculating the popular vote anymore; they're looking at who among the supporters will actually go to the ballot box.

"We've had polling coming in with the popular vote but then the turnout vote as being something different which has caused some consternation, so over the last year or so we've used another formula where we can actually look at gauging the turnout vote," said Ipsos Reid's senior vice president, John Wright.

Only about 50 per cent of eligible voters will actually cast a ballot.

And this time around, Wright said, a higher percentage of PC supporters are planning to vote.

His poll found 56 per cent of those who say they'll support the Tories will be heading to the ballot box.

"Unless Kathleen Wynne rallies her troops to get out, which only 38 per cent of people who support the Liberals right now, only 38 per cent of them are actually going to the polls, so Tim Hudak, riding a wave of change in a much more galvanized group of people, ends up with a big bonus at the ballot box," said Wright.

If turnout goes the way his poll found the PCs will get 41 per cent of the vote, the Liberals 29 and the NDP 25.

Wright said what is going to be the major factor this time around is each party's ability to get out the vote.

The Ipsos Reid poll was commissioned by CTV and CP24.

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